February 2024 Stock Market Outlook

Only one stock in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index was higher Tuesday…and not by much. The overall PCE, which includes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year. Gold hit a one-month high on Thursday after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, with traders now awaiting clearer direction from Federal Reserve officials about interest rate cuts.

With a little less than an hour to go before the closing bell, the Dow was up more than 950 points, or 3.3%. That number was even is fxchoice regulated up from a revised gain of 333,000 jobs in December, which topped economists’ forecasts for that month of 170,000 new jobs.

Jerry Klein, managing director at Treasury Partners, says investors are way too optimistic about interest rate cuts in 2024. Tuesday’s losses wiped out a week’s worth of gains on Wall Street. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven gauges of market sentiment, is once again showing signs of Fear on Tuesday as the broader market plunged. The VIX, a volatility index that is one of the seven components of the Fear & Greed Index, shot up nearly 8%.

One of the most important variables in the Fed’s inflation battle is the labor market, which has remained remarkably resilient. The Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January. That was significantly more than economists’ expectations of 176,000 new jobs. The New York Fed Recession indicator suggests there is a 62.9% probability of a recession sometime in the next 12 months.

Russell 2000 Futures

Global market breadth and narrowing credit spreads could spell a path towards 5,600 for the S&P 500, according to Stephen Suttmeier, Bank of America’s chief equity technical strategist. Marathon is on pace for a 47% February gain, Iris Energy is up 48% and Riot has advanced nearly 30%. Those moves came as bitcoin appeared to take a pause from this week’s rally.

1. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past year as the Federal Reserve pushed ahead with its unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation.
2. Although annual inflation fell compared to July, it didn’t fall as much as economists expected.
3. CVS now expects adjusted earnings between $8.40 and $8.60 per share this year, up from its prior guidance of $8.20 to $8.40.
4. US stocks tumbled on Tuesday, falling from recent highs as investors digested a hotter-than-expected January inflation report that showed prices cooling slower than forecasts anticipated.
5. In other markets, the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovered below $50,000 after the leading cryptocurrency hit the closely watched level for the first time since 2021, seen as a remarkable comeback.

On a headline basis, prices increased 3.1%, above economist estimates but a deceleration from a 3.4% annual gain in December. “Higher-for-longer rates will likely stay with us until summer.” “Hot January inflation data adds to uncertainty and pushes back rate cut expectations,” he said following the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index data Thursday morning.

I’m 58, earn $4,400 a month and want to retire at 60. Is this doable? Do I really need to replace 80% of my income?

Mr. Duggan is also the author of the book “Beating Wall Street With Common Sense” and has contributed news and analysis to U.S. News & World Report, Seeking Alpha, InvestorPlace.com and The Motley Fool. Mr. Duggan is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and resides in Biloxi, Mississippi. That 15.8% tops the 9.2% annual average for all years since 1954, which was the year the S&P 500 set its first all-time high after the stock market crash of 1929. In other markets, the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovered below $50,000 after the leading cryptocurrency hit the closely watched level for the first time since 2021, seen as a remarkable comeback. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has slipped 0.09% on an average Feb. 29, according to Carson Group data.

Taxes often spike when a spouse transitions to filing as a single taxpayer, but financial advisers say there are several strategies to lessen the hit. Prices at the grocery store continued to soar last month, adding even more pressure to shoppers’ wallets. Some traders were suggesting that the market may (finally) have hit bottom after the S&P 500 briefly dipped below the key 3,500 level before rebounding. We’re running out of superlatives to describe today’s action on Wall Street.

Leap day is historically weak for stocks

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index posted its first record finish in more than two years Thursday, as inflation figures sparked a relief rally. Stovall said one other factor to consider is that markets tend to do a lot of digesting after a year when returns have been 20% or greater. The S&P 500 registered a 26.89% gain in 2021 and is down 7.7% so far in 2022. Investors ought to be forgiven for thinking that markets only go up.

The S&P 500 fell 3% and the Nasdaq was down 3.9%, wiping out last week’s gains. Stocks had been on a four-day winning streak prior to Tuesday’s plunge. One strategist suggested that there could be more market pain ahead.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 70 points, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures edged down 0.2% each. U.S. Treasury yields were up slightly as traders awaited the latest PCE report. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was up 3 basis points at 4.303%. These inflows mirror the recent bitcoin brokers canada spike in trading volume of the funds, as the rise in price for bitcoin appears to be helping the new funds garner interest. C3.ai’s CEO Tom Siebel said that demand for Enterprise AI products is “overwhelming” and that the opportunity’s become “substantially larger” than forecasted during an earnings call with analysts.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, and comments on inflation and future rate hikes from a number of Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 enters Wednesday down nearly 1% for the week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has declined 0.34%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the laggard, falling 1.37% week to date. When removing the volatile food and energy categories, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release showed “core” prices increased 0.4% in January, their largest monthly gain since April 2023.

Investors strongly believe that the Fed will keep rates there, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 98.4% chance that markets have priced in another pause at the current rate, with another 1.6% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past year as the Federal Reserve pushed ahead with its unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. The combination of the central bank’s rate hikes, investor’s concerns about a recession and mixed economic news has made mortgage rates volatile over the past several months. “The gains in big technology stocks are unsustainable, especially since they were overvalued even before the 2023 tech stock surge. The S&P 500 followed its 26.28% gain in 2023 with a 1.68% gain in January despite a lackluster start to fourth-quarter earnings season. Recent inflation data suggests the Fed still has work to do in getting prices under control, but gross domestic product and labor market readings indicate the U.S. economy remains on solid footing for now.

Investors will also get more signals over the path of inflation when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released on Tuesday, which comes as other recent inflation reports have shown that prices have been increasing at a slower pace. On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will show wholesale prices for business, another inflation indicator. German inflation fell for a second straight month in February, coming in slightly lower than expected, likely a relief for European Central Bank policymakers as they consider when to first cut interest rates. Fruits and vegetables rose 1.6% for the month, while cereals and bakery products rose 0.9%. Other groceries increased 0.5% in September, following a 1.1% increase in August. The food at home index, a proxy for grocery store prices, increased 0.7% in September from the month prior and 13% over the last year, according to new government data released Thursday.

But many buyers who put down less money up front or have less than perfect credit will pay more. The pizza king’s sales topped forecasts, even though the strong dollar ate into revenue a bit. Domino’s shares rose 9%, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.

“At least for today, it should be all systems go and buyers should re-emerge.” Fewer earnings reports are scheduled this week, as earnings season has largely concluded, but there are a few tech companies scheduled to report. Intel ndax review will be the latest chipmaker to host a launch event that points toward its AI offerings. Investors focused more on strong earnings from the likes of Delta (DAL), Dow component Walgreens (WBA) and Wall Street giant BlackRock (BLK).

The increase in owner’s equivalent rent was the biggest since June 1990. If those gains hold, the Dow will wind up with its biggest percentage and points gains of 2022, topping a 2.8% jump from early May. It needs to go up more than 932 points for it to be the largest point increase.